Julia Chirkova
A significant shift is underway in the landscape of retail crime, with new research indicating a stabilization in traditional shoplifting while external theft and fraud schemes surge. The "Impact of Theft & Violence 2026" report, a comprehensive study released today by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and the Loss Prevention Research Council (LPRC), and sponsored by Sensormatic Solutions, paints a nuanced picture of evolving criminal tactics. While retailers have seen a notable decrease in in-store shoplifting incidents and merchandise theft in 2025 compared to the previous year, these gains are being overshadowed by an alarming rise in more sophisticated external threats.
The report, based on a survey of senior loss prevention and security executives from 66 retail companies representing 143 brands and $1.7 trillion in annual sales, reveals a 12.4% decrease in shoplifting incidents and an 8.1% decline in retail merchandise theft during 2025. This positive trend is largely attributed to proactive measures implemented by retailers, including enhanced security technologies and robust employee training programs. However, the study underscores that organized retail criminals are adapting, increasingly exploiting vulnerabilities in both the physical and digital realms of commerce.
"After years of rising in-store theft, retailers are beginning to see levels stabilize, driven by investments in technology and employee training to strengthen store security and improve response to these crimes," stated David Johnston, NRF Vice President for Asset Protection and Retail Operations. "However, significant challenges remain as organized criminals continue to exploit vulnerabilities throughout the retail environment as seen in the rise of various fraud schemes and thefts including cargo theft, phone scams and gift card fraud."
The Evolving Tactics of Retail Crime
The decline in traditional theft methods appears to be a direct result of retailers’ strategic efforts to bolster their defenses. These initiatives include the evaluation, implementation, and refinement of security measures such as advanced interior and exterior surveillance systems, enhanced access control, and the development of store- and employee-specific safety protocols. Furthermore, retailers have demonstrably improved their analytical capabilities, enabling them to better understand loss patterns and assess the efficacy of their security investments against various forms of theft.
However, the "Impact of Theft & Violence 2026" report highlights a concerning pivot in criminal activity. The data suggests a growing prevalence of repeat offenders, with 50% of retailers reporting an increase in such individuals. Organized retail crime (ORC) related incidents have also seen a surge, with 40% of retailers observing a rise. "Walkout" or "pushout" theft, a method where individuals remove merchandise from a store without attempting to conceal it, remains a significant concern, with 37% of retailers reporting an increase.
Beyond physical theft, the digital and transactional aspects of retail are becoming increasingly targeted. Fraudulent activities are on the rise across multiple channels. Phone scams have surged, with 69% of retailers reporting an increase. Loyalty fraud, which involves exploiting customer reward programs, has also seen a substantial uptick at 51%. Gift card theft or fraud is another growing concern, impacting 42% of retailers. These statistics indicate a sophisticated criminal element that is diversifying its methods to circumvent traditional security measures.
Understanding the Shifting Threat Landscape
Dr. Read Hayes, Research Scientist at the University of Florida and Executive Director of the Loss Prevention Research Council, emphasized the critical need for ongoing research to comprehend these evolving threats. "Trusted research is essential to understanding these threats and how they continue to evolve," Dr. Hayes remarked. "As these risks shift and shoplifting rates stabilize, the retail industry must confront the growing challenges of fraud and external theft."
The report’s findings are particularly relevant given the increasing complexity of retail operations, which now span physical stores, e-commerce platforms, and omnichannel strategies. This expanded digital footprint presents new avenues for exploitation by sophisticated criminal networks. The interconnectedness of supply chains also makes them susceptible to various forms of theft, including cargo theft, which can have ripple effects throughout the industry.
Persistent Concerns: Violence and Reporting Gaps
While the focus often shifts to financial losses, the issue of violence within retail environments remains a critical concern. Retailers continue to report increases in disruptions related to homelessness and incidents involving difficult customers. In response, the industry is intensifying its efforts in proactive workplace violence prevention. This includes significant investments in management training (72%), employee training (65%), and the deployment of risk-intelligence technologies (61%) aimed at creating safer environments for both staff and shoppers.
Despite the reported increases in various forms of retail crime, the practice of reporting these incidents to law enforcement continues to be a point of concern. A substantial 63% of retailers report that fewer than half of store-related theft incidents are reported to law enforcement. The primary reasons cited for this reluctance include the perceived low value of stolen goods, often not meeting felony thresholds (60%), and concerns about the perceived lack of law enforcement response and follow-through (54%). This reporting gap can hinder comprehensive crime analysis and the allocation of necessary resources for effective prosecution.
Industry Responses and the Call for Collaboration
Tony D’Onofrio, President of Sensormatic Solutions, highlighted the industry’s embrace of technology in combating these multifaceted threats. "Retailers are leveraging data and connected technologies to combat retail crime," D’Onofrio commented. "This year’s report underscores that no single company can address this challenge alone. Meaningful progress requires strong collaboration among retailers, communities, and law enforcement agencies to enhance asset protection and keep employees and customers safe."
This sentiment underscores a growing recognition that retail crime is not solely an internal issue for individual businesses but a societal challenge that requires a coordinated, multi-stakeholder approach. The complexity of organized retail crime, often involving cross-jurisdictional and transnational elements, necessitates enhanced collaboration between various law enforcement agencies at local, state, and federal levels.
Legislative Support and Future Outlook
In line with the call for stronger collaboration and federal support, the NRF is actively advocating for legislative action. Following its passage in the U.S. House of Representatives, the NRF urges the U.S. Senate to pass the Combating Organized Retail Crime Act. This proposed legislation aims to strengthen federal coordination and equip state and local law enforcement with the tools and resources necessary to more effectively identify and investigate organized retail crime groups that operate across different jurisdictions and national borders.
The methodology behind "The Impact of Theft & Violence 2026" report involved an online survey conducted between February and April 2026, targeting senior loss prevention and security executives within the retail sector. The 66 participating retail companies represent a significant portion of the U.S. retail market, with their brands accounting for approximately 31.6% of total retail sales. The majority of these companies (63%) employ over 10,000 individuals, and a substantial portion (38%) operate more than 1,000 stores, indicating the broad reach and impact of the findings.
The stabilization of in-store theft, while a positive development, serves as a crucial reminder that the fight against retail crime is dynamic. As criminals adapt and innovate, the retail industry must remain vigilant, continuously refining its security strategies and fostering collaborative efforts. The growing prevalence of external theft and fraud demands a comprehensive approach that addresses both physical and digital vulnerabilities, while also ensuring that law enforcement agencies are adequately supported and equipped to tackle these evolving criminal enterprises. The insights from this report are vital for shaping future strategies and policies aimed at protecting retailers, their employees, and their customers.
