Layla Zulfa
Florida’s housing market is exhibiting further signs of normalization, with statewide figures indicating a shift toward more balanced conditions. However, a closer examination of the Orlando metropolitan area reveals a complex landscape where distinct submarkets are experiencing vastly different realities. While inventory has increased and price reductions are becoming more common across the state, the Orlando region’s diverse economic drivers, from short-term rentals to new construction, are creating a fragmented market that defies a single narrative.
As of the week ending August 29, active single-family home listings across Florida stood at 83,832, according to HousingWire Data. This represents a significant increase from the approximately 53,000 homes available at the beginning of 2023. While this surge in inventory signals a move away from the extreme seller’s market of recent years, it remains below the peak of around 107,000 listings observed in mid-2025. This growth in supply is a key indicator of market normalization, offering more choices to potential buyers.
The statewide median list price experienced a slight decline, settling at $474,999. This is a 2.9% decrease from the $489,000 median price recorded a year prior. Concurrently, a substantial 43.9% of active listings had seen a price reduction, underscoring a growing willingness among sellers to adjust their expectations to meet current market conditions.
Within the expansive Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford metropolitan area, a similar trend is unfolding. The region reported 8,887 active listings, with a median list price of $485,000. Nearly half of these listings, 49%, had undergone a price reduction. The average days on market in Orlando was 123, slightly faster than the statewide average of 138 days, suggesting that while homes are taking longer to sell, the market is still functioning.
However, seasoned local real estate professionals emphasize that these aggregate numbers, while informative, do not capture the granular nuances that define Orlando’s housing market. The true story, they assert, is being written at the neighborhood level, influenced by property type, financing options, insurance costs, and, most critically, precise pricing.
The Stratified Orlando Market: Neighborhoods Dictate Conditions
Joe Doher, a veteran agent with Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Results Realty in Orlando, who has navigated the local real estate landscape for 33 years across Orange, Osceola, Seminole, and Lake counties, observes a distinct buyer preference for immediate access and personalized service. "The consumer in Orlando wants immediate gratification," Doher stated in an interview with HousingWire. "The weather’s good. They want open houses – and access to the home is critical. And communication, they don’t want to talk to a bot. They don’t want to talk to text or email. If you can get a live person, that’s where the execution is happening." This sentiment highlights the enduring importance of human interaction and responsive service in closing deals.
Doher further stressed the critical role of agent expertise in the current market. "Hiring the right pro is the key to selling in Orlando, and there’s still a lot of movement and a lot of buyers that want representation." This underscores a shift from a purely supply-driven market to one where skilled negotiation and market insight are paramount.
Jeremy Pozek, founder of Pozek Group and a prominent Orlando agent, echoes Doher’s assessment, noting that the broad metro statistics can obscure the starkly divergent conditions within the region. "It’s a very siloed. Orlando’s [metro area] is very tough to follow from the outsider’s perspective," Pozek explained. "It’s because we have so many different kinds of markets within the same [metro]. You have the short-term rental market down in Kissimmee, Champions Gate – sort of the southwest Orlando area that’s really tough right now. The Airbnb market dried up in terms of buyers."
This downturn in the short-term rental market, a significant economic driver in areas like Kissimmee and Champions Gate, has created an oversupply of homes in those specific submarkets. "So, we have months’ supply of homes, and there’s price reductions left and right. But the well-priced, good-looking houses are still selling within a week or two. It’s the ones that think it’s 2022 and try to price super high [that] sit forever." This contrast between desirable, well-priced properties and those that are overvalued is a defining characteristic of the current market.
Both Doher and Pozek are recognized leaders in the Orlando real estate community. Doher ranked No. 1 across Orlando in both volume and transaction sides in the previous year, according to RealTrends Verified. Similarly, Pozek Group earned top placement in both categories among mega teams. Their insights, therefore, carry significant weight in understanding the on-the-ground realities.
Pricing Becomes the Decisive Factor in a Shifting Market
Veronica Figueroa, CEO of eXp Realty-affiliated The Fig Team in Orlando, observes that sellers are increasingly compelled to recalibrate their price expectations. "We do see still properties go under contract within days in a multiple offer situation in these pocket markets," she stated. "It’s very specific communities that are highly desirable. Then, on the flip side, we are seeing some distressed properties. We’re starting to see a lot more short sale scenarios of people saying, ‘You know, I’m behind or I’m underwater.’"
Figueroa further elaborated on the profile of these distressed sellers: "But these are very specific buyers. Maybe they bought in 2023 or at the height of the market, and they’re just in a situation that’s unfortunate." This points to a segment of the market where buyers who entered at the peak of the market are now facing financial difficulties due to declining values or increased carrying costs.
Rather than directly confronting sellers with the notion that their price is too high, Figueroa employs a strategy of guided discovery. "I say, ‘Help me understand how you came to this conclusion that your house is worth what 2021 and 2022 told you it was,’" she recounted. "A lot of times we take them on a path of self-discovery, and if they’re really serious about selling, they come to that conclusion themselves." This approach aims to foster a more collaborative and realistic pricing strategy. The Fig Team’s strong performance, ranking No. 4 in Orlando for volume and transaction sides last year, attests to their effectiveness in navigating these market dynamics.
Pozek concurs that sellers must anchor their pricing strategies to current market data rather than past transactions. "You have to look at pending comps more than ever, and then it’s about figuring out where the market’s trending," he advised. "If you’re not paying attention to those minute details, you’re going to get left behind." This emphasizes the need for real-time market analysis and a forward-looking approach to pricing.
New Construction Incentives and a Soft Vacation Season Impact the Market
Pozek also highlighted the significant competitive pressure exerted by new home builders offering substantial incentives. "You look at some of the suburban markets that have a lot of new construction," he noted. "Builders are offering wild incentives. I just closed a deal. It was the biggest incentive I’ve ever had in the 23 years I’ve been doing this, just wild, to get the deal done." These builder incentives, which can include significant discounts, upgrades, or even interest rate buydowns, are making new homes more attractive, particularly in areas with abundant new inventory.
In contrast, "the core markets where there’s not a lot of new construction – there’s still not a lot of inventory. The prices are holding strong and days on market right around 45 days is not bad; [it’s] pretty typical." This bifurcation suggests that established neighborhoods with limited new development are experiencing more stable pricing and quicker sales cycles compared to areas flooded with new construction.
The increasing number of price reductions has also sparked discussions about whether Florida is heading towards a distressed housing market. Doher anticipates continued pressure on vacation markets as the year progresses. "I think [the overall market] will stabilize a little bit, but the vacation markets will feel a little more pain points because they have a high vacancy rate now," he predicted. "The season seemed to soften a little bit earlier this year. Talking to the property managers that manage vacation rentals, I think the vacation mark will see a really rough fourth quarter. The primary housing market buyer demand is still there." This outlook suggests that while the broader market may find equilibrium, segments heavily reliant on short-term rentals could face headwinds.
Affordability Remains a Lingering Concern for Buyers
For buyers outside the vacation rental segment, affordability continues to be a primary concern, with insurance costs playing an increasingly significant role. Doher pointed to upcoming changes in insurance regulations that will further impact homeowners. "Something that many people don’t know about the Florida market is that starting January 2027, if you have a [Citizens Property Insurance] policy, even if you’re not in a flood zone, you’re required to have flood insurance," he disclosed. "These are things that people don’t know. That’s going to make it another affordability issue." This impending mandatory flood insurance requirement, particularly for those with Citizens policies, could add a substantial financial burden for many Floridians.
Despite these challenges, Figueroa observes that buyer motivation remains strong when financing can be structured to achieve a manageable monthly payment. "We sell 500 homes a year, and we’re seeing buyers are still excited about buying right now because we can take them to a builder, and they’ll get a three-two-one buydown," she reported. "We’re giving them alternative ways to get creative financing or financing that works for them right now. Even though interest rates are not the most competitive, they can start off with the three-two-one buydown with the hopes that they can refinance later on." The three-two-one buydown, which temporarily reduces the interest rate on a fixed-rate loan, is proving to be a valuable tool in making homeownership more accessible in the current interest rate environment.
Doher also attributes continued demand in Central Florida to ongoing migration, particularly among higher-income individuals. "The main thing that is driving the market is that the high end is recession proof, and there’s still demand," he asserted. "I’ve seen all the data showing that the people are still moving here in droves. You know, the U-Haul data – inbound migration is still there." This influx of new residents, often with disposable income, continues to support the luxury segment of the market.
In a Balanced Market, Execution and Expertise Are Paramount
Doher notes that while technology, including AI, is transforming how consumers discover properties and agents, the importance of credibility and personal connection remains unchanged. He even shared anecdotes of Tesla owners being directed to his business by their car’s navigation systems, illustrating how technology can serendipitously connect buyers with agents.
"It’s not 2022 anymore, no more demand ahead of supply like that," Doher concluded. "Now it’s a balanced market when professionals shine and having the right tools and tech helps. AI is a big part, but it’s still about getting out there. Being ranked number one [on RealTrends], I’ve really been able to lean into that and I’m thankful for it, for the exposure." This perspective emphasizes that in a market where supply and demand are more evenly matched, the skills and reputation of real estate professionals become critical differentiators.
Pozek believes that a significant hurdle for the market is the need for collective expectations to align with current realities. "The collective conscious of what’s actually going on in the market needs to catch up," he urged. "On the flip side, sellers and buyers weren’t really understanding [in 2020 and 2021] that the market was as hot as it was until we were already a year or 18 months into that. So, all of a sudden, now they understood multiple offers and they understood waving appraisals. They understood these crazy things. Now, it’s completely shifted to the other side with the sellers needing to catch up." This suggests a period of market recalibration where all participants are adjusting to a new normal.
Figueroa draws a clear distinction between the current market conditions and the extraordinary circumstances of the recent past. "This is a normal market, but I’ve also been doing this for 20 years, so I understand this type of market because the market we lived five years ago wasn’t a normal market," she stated. "We just don’t have interest rates at 2.625% anymore. I remember my first home that I sold was a 6.75% interest rate when I first started real estate. So for me, this is just back to reality." Her perspective underscores that the current market, while different from the frenzied activity of 2020-2022, is a return to more conventional real estate cycles.
For sellers, the overarching message from market experts is clear: price properties according to today’s market realities, not the inflated values of three years ago. For buyers, the increased inventory and greater negotiating leverage signal a return to a more buyer-friendly environment. For Orlando’s real estate professionals, the opportunity lies in skillfully navigating the diverse conditions across the region’s submarkets, recognizing that a one-size-fits-all approach is no longer effective in this evolving landscape.
